Since I have only seen 3 Oscar nominated films from 2008 (Slumdog Millionaire, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button and The Dark Knight), I didn’t feel like I had enough credibility to predict winners for this year’s Oscar Awards. Instead, I decided to look back and see how the Golden Globes did in predicting winners. To note, one major difference between the award shows is that the Golden Globes split up Drama and Musical/Comedy categories which basically gives it two chances at picking the Oscar winner. Let’s look back at the past 10 years for the 3 major awards (Oscar winner in bold):
BEST PICTURE
| Season | Golden Globe | Oscar | |
| Drama | Musical/Comedy | ||
| 1998 | Saving Private Ryan | Shakespeare in Love | Shakespeare in Love |
| 1999 | American Beauty | Toy Story 2 | American Beauty |
| 2000 | Gladiator | Almost Famous | Gladiator |
| 2001 | A Beautiful Mind | Moulin Rouge | A Beautiful Mind |
| 2002 | Babel | Chicago | Chicago |
| 2003 | Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King | Lost in Translation | Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King |
| 2004 | The Aviator | Sideways | Crash |
| 2005 | Brokeback Mountain | Walk the Line | Million Dollar Baby |
| 2006 | Babel | Dreamgirls | The Departed |
| 2007 | Atonement | Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street | No Country For Old Men |
| 2008 | Slumdog Millionaire | Vicky Cristina Barcelona | ??? |
| Last-10 | 4 | 2 | |
| 6/10 | |||
BEST LEAD ACTOR
| Season | Golden Globe | Oscar | |
| Drama | Musical/Comedy | ||
| 1998 | Jim Carrey – The Truman Show | Michael Caine – Little Voice | Roberto Benigni – Life is Beautiful |
| 1999 | Denzel Washington – The Hurricane | Jim Carrey – Man on the Moon | Kevin Spacey – American Beauty |
| 2000 | Tom Hanks – Cast Away | George Clooney – O Brother Where Art Thou? | Russell Crowe – Gladiator |
| 2001 | Russell Crowe – A Beautiful Mind | Gene Hackman – The Royal Tenenbaums | Denzel Washington – Training Day |
| 2002 | Jack Nicholson – About Schmidt | Richard Gere – Chicago | Adrian Brody – The Pianist |
| 2003 | Sean Penn – Mystic River | Bill Murray – Lost in Translation | Sean Penn – Mystic River |
| 2004 | Leonardo DiCaprio – The Aviator | Jamie Foxx – Ray | Jamie Foxx – Ray |
| 2005 | Philip Seymour Hoffman – Capote | Joaquin Phoenix – Walk the Line | Philip Seymour Hoffman – Capote |
| 2006 | Forest Whitaker – The Last King of Scotland | Sacha Baron Cohen – Borat | Forest Whitaker – The Last King of Scotland |
| 2007 | Daniel Day Lewis – There Will Be Blood | Johnny Depp – Sweeney Todd | Daniel Day Lewis – There Will Be Blood |
| 2008 | Mickey Rourke – The Wrestler | Colin Farrell – In Bruges | ??? |
| Last-10 | 4 | 1 | |
| 5/10 | |||
BEST LEAD ACTRESS
| Season | Golden Globe | Oscar | |
| Drama | Musical/Comedy | ||
| 1998 | Cate Blanchett – Elizabeth | Gwenyth Paltrow – Shakespeare in Love | Gwenyth Paltrow – Shakespeare in Love |
| 1999 | Hilary Swank – Boys Don’t Cry | Janet McTeer – Tumbleweeds | Hilary Swank – Boys Don’t Cry |
| 2000 | Julia Roberts – Erin Brockovich | Renee Zellweger – Nurse Betty | Julia Roberts – Erin Brockovich |
| 2001 | Sissy Spacek – In The Bedroom | Nicole Kidman – Moulin Rouge | Halle Berry – Monster’s Ball |
| 2002 | Nicole Kidman – The Hours | Renee Zellweger – Chicago | Nicole Kidman – The Hours |
| 2003 | Charlize Theron – Monster | Diane Keaton – Something’s Gotta Give | Charlize Theron – Monster |
| 2004 | Hilary Swank – Million Dollar Baby | Annette Bening – Being Julia | Hilary Swank – Million Dollar Baby |
| 2005 | Felicity Huffman – Transamerica | Reese Witherspoon – Walk the Line | Reese Witherspoon – Walk the Line |
| 2006 | Helen Mirren – The Queen | Meryl Streep – The Devil Wears Prada | Helen Mirren – The Queen |
| 2007 | Julie Christie – Away from Her | Marion Cotillard – La Vie en Rose | Marion Cotillard – La Vie en Rose |
| 2008 | Kate Winslet – Revolutionary Road | Sally Hawkins – Happy-Go-Lucky | ??? |
| Last-10 | 6 | 3 | |
| 9/10 | |||
What this all means is that the Golden Globes is in a slump predicting the Best Picture after reeling off 8 straight correctly from 1996-2003. On the other hand, the Golden Globes are on a 5 year hot streak of predicting Best Lead Actor after a 5 year futility streak 1998-2002. Finally, based on recent historical results, I would start popping the champagne if I were Kate Winslet, up for Best Lead Actress.
One Comment